Epidemiological modelling of SARS-CoV-2 in Catalonia
Weekly predictions of COVID-19 in Catalonia
Data and predictions are updated once a week, during a COVID-19 epidemic wave. They are not updated between waves.
Data from SIVIC
- SARS-CoV-2 variants
- Cases forecast
- Single-factor hospitalization forecast model
- Scenarios exploration
Evolution of SARS-CoV-2 variants in Catalonia.
The figure shows the weekly samples of each SARS-CoV-2 variant obtained by the surveillance system in Catalonia (up), the model outcome of the subsequent substitution processes (middle), and the estimation of weekly diagnosed COVID-19 cases that correspond to each variant (down).
More info about the substitution model: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1339267
Cases forecast.
The figure shows the weekly short-term prediction of COVID-19 case detection in Catalonia. These predictions are only released during a SARS-CoV-2 wave, as they have no relevance when the circulation level is low and, therefore, noisy. Blue bars show notified cases, red bars show predicted cases together with associated uncertainty, and the solid line shows how previous predictions have behaved, so that the reliability of past predictions can be visually assessed.
More information about the Gompertz prediction model: 10.1038/s41598-024-61233-w and 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008431.
Single-factor hospitalization forecast model.
The figures show the prediction of weekly hospitalized patients with and due to COVID-19 in Catalonia for age groups over 60 years old. These predictions are only released during a SARS-CoV-2 wave, as they have no relevance when the circulation level is low and, therefore, noisy. Blue bars show notified hospitalizations, red bars show predicted hospitalizations together with associated uncertainty, and the solid line shows how previous predictions have behaved, allowing for a visual assessment of the reliability of past predictions.
These forecasts are produced from the case series combined with a set of ratios and delays derived from the previous wave. More information about hospitalization ratios can be found here: 10.3390/vaccines12050466
Scenarios exploration
The scenarios simulation requires the formulation of ad-hoc hypotheses and careful interpretation. Therefore, it will be performed under reasonable and justified request.
Project “Epidemiological modelling of SARS-CoV2 in a post-pandemic surveillance context: an open platform for mid-term scenarios and short-term predictions” Supported by the BBVA Foundation.
